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Whether prices for apartments will change in 2020 is a more than relevant issue. More than 20% of the population of Russia do not have their own housing. Ordinary citizens who dream of buying an apartment are waiting for the right moment to buy "good and inexpensive." Wealthy Russians are also interested in the real estate market, but for the purpose of profitably investing their savings. Cheaper or more expensive square meters in the near future are interested in both.
Factors Affecting Price
It is quite difficult to predict whether apartments will become cheaper or cheaper in 2020. The greatest impact on the real estate market is exerted by economic factors. These include:
- the level of wages of the population;
- unemployment situation;
- debt of citizens;
- terms of bank loans and much more.
In simple words, the less people have purchasing power, the lower the demand, and hence the lower the price. Moreover, as economists note, the state of the domestic economy is sometimes reflected in real estate prices very non-standard. The economic law of "supply and demand" in real life often does not work. Thus, the financial instability in the country does not reduce demand, but rather whips it up. The effect of price expectations is triggered and people in a rush buy up real estate, hoping to save the accumulated. Often these transactions are completely unprofitable, due to a further fall in prices.
The cost of the “cherished dream” of many Russians largely depends on political factors. Of great importance is the political course of the authorities regarding the provision of housing for the population. Increased demand stimulate:
- government mortgage subsidy programs;
- maternal capital;
- cash subsidies in the form of a down payment for low-income citizens, etc.
The negative impact on the market has a tense geopolitical situation in the world. Dependence on the dollar exchange rate, the cost of a barrel of oil, and the sanctions imposed on Russia can be manifested as an increase in demand and housing prices, and complete stagnation of the real estate market. So, in 2014, after the introduction of the first sanctions, as a result of the accession of Crimea to Russia, a huge number of transactions were recorded. As a result of incredible inertia demand, prices per square meter crawled up and reached record levels by the first quarter of 2015. A similar situation of economic instability in 2008, on the contrary, led to a complete absence of transactions and a significant drop in prices.
For information. According to the Ministry of Construction, the five regions with the lowest cost of housing included Kabardino-Balkaria, Dagestan, Saratov, Bryansk regions and Kalmykia. The cost per square meter in these regions is an average of 30 thousand rubles.
The dynamics of prices per square meter in new buildings
The heterogeneous dynamics of prices for new buildings has stabilized and has taken a positive trend. The leader in increasing cost was sunny Sochi. From January to December 2018, the price of a “meter” increased by almost a quarter. Over the same period, Moscow apartments have risen in price by only 3%. The increase in the cost of new buildings was expected for the following reasons:
- cancellation of shared construction;
- news about the rising cost of mortgages in the near future;
- VAT increase;
- the fall of the ruble.
This suggests that there are more prerequisites for increasing prices than for lowering them.But on the other hand, the supply of new buildings far exceeds the demand for them. With an increase in mortgage interest and the sale of new apartments, this ratio will shift even more in favor of the proposal. According to economists, this is unlikely to provoke a decrease in prices, but there is no reason to be afraid of a sharp increase. Most forecasts agree that the cost of square meters in new homes will not rise in price by more than 10%.
Secondary market prices
In the secondary housing market there is a persistent tendency to increase the cost of the "square". The analysis was carried out in 79 regions of Russia, in 75 of them a price increase was noted. The growth was insignificant (on average from 0.1% to 3%). A record jump in prices for secondary housing was recorded in the Amur Region - 9.6%. In Moscow, a square meter went up by 6.6% and stopped at 203561 rubles. Housing prices have fallen only in 4 regions of the Russian Federation. For example, in the Ivanovo region, the price of apartments fell by 0.5%.
Experts believe that it is unlikely that the cost of housing will rise further. One of the factors that hitherto kept prices at the same level is still relevant. We are talking about a low level of solvency of the population. Most people barely make ends meet. In addition, the “secondary” is losing to the segment of new buildings, and price reduction is perhaps the main weapon in the struggle for customers.
On a note. According to real estate agencies, most Russians prefer to buy apartments without repair in new buildings with developed infrastructure than renovated apartments on the secondary market.
Location matters
The location, that is, the location of the apartment, plays a key role in shaping its price in the market. This is the opinion of experts. According to statistics from real estate agencies, only 33% of citizens choose at a price. For the rest of the Russians, the fundamental criteria at the moment are the status of the city or region, as well as the prestige of the region. So, in the Moscow region and areas near the Black Sea coast, the cost per square meter is growing regardless of external factors.
Within a city or any settlement, the price depends on the living environment. Most buyers are not against overpaying, but living in an ecologically clean area with a low level of criminogenicity. As for the comfort of the area, today this is no longer the reason to overcharge the sale. Rather, this is the norm, and without a decent infrastructure it is unlikely that it will be expensive to sell an apartment, despite the general trend of increasing prices.
Read also:
- Will apartments rise in price in 2020
- Moscow development plan until 2020: scheme
- New buildings near Moscow 2019-2020
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