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The main macroeconomic indicator of the state of the country's economy is the gross domestic product. It is calculated in several ways, publish absolute values in rubles or US dollars. The pace of economic development (or stagnation) is estimated based on the forecast of Russia's GDP growth until 2020, which is expressed as a percentage. The basis or 100% take the level of last year. For example, GDP growth in 2017 amounted to 1.5%. This means that 1.5% more goods and services were produced than in 2016.
According to the latest news, Western economic experts (Bloomberg Economics) do not see the prospects for Russia's GDP growth higher than 2% per year. In other words, Russia will not be able to double its GDP by 2024.
Preliminary values
Scenarios on the pace of development of the country, the levels of increase or decrease in gross income are published by both Russian departments that are related to the economy, and third-party experts. Domestic GDP forecast for 2018 - 2020 was published by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank:
- this year 1.5 - 1.8%;
- for 2019 up to 1.2 - 1.7%;
- for 2020, 1.8 - 2.3%.
The announced figures coincide with the assessment of the Russian economy by foreign experts from the IMF, and the independent expert of the Fitch rating agency is more optimistic. Eric Arispe believes that this year the final value will be 2% growth, 1.5% in the next and 1.9% in the twentieth.
If we compare the pace of development of our economy with the world, then not everything is so bad. In the European Union, annual GDP growth is 2.3 - 2.4%, in the states - about 3%. If we maintain the pace we can build up the gross product at the same rate. How much the forecasts will come true can be judged now: the year is approaching the end of 2018, economists have given real numbers for the past three quarters.
2018: scenario and reality
For the current year, the initial gross product growth was planned at 1.5%, the most optimistic forecasts raised this figure to 1.7%. But reality managed to surprise domestic and foreign economists: according to the results of the first half of the year, a 1.8% growth was obtained. True, the picture was spoiled by the 3rd quarter: only 1.3%, but in terms of three quarters the annual value of 1.6%. If the 4th quarter does not present any bad surprises, then the forecasts will be fully justified.
What are they doing to maintain the pace of development
The government, making forecasts of an increase in Russia's GDP until 2020, takes into account several conditions:
- maintaining the difficult political situation around the country, the “war of sanctions”;
- the cost of oil is more than $ 40 per barrel;
- substitution of commodity exports for commodity exports from 9% to 50%;
- pension reform;
- changes in tax legislation.
All of the above was announced back in 2017, now you can summarize partial results. Pension reform has begun; 5 years have been given for the full implementation of all changes. By this time, it should balance the budget of the FIU.
The taxation system has also changed: the VAT rate has increased, the tax burden on small businesses has been reduced. All this should increase budget revenues, increase the rate of economic development to 3-5% annually.
In June this year, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the country's president noted that it was necessary to attract foreign investors to the Russian economy. For this purpose, joint investment packages will be created at the state level, attractive to both our and Western businessmen.Now there is industrial growth (partly due to sanctions), which must not only be maintained, but also developed.
Growth Strategy Program
For the domestic economy to be able to reach world-wide GDP growth rates, efforts are needed in all areas, combined into a single scenario. It was developed by the Institute. Stolypin and called "Growth Strategy." Most of it has already been accepted by the Russian government. If the program is fully implemented, then Russia's GDP 2020-2025 will yield annual growth of up to 5%. Pension and tax reforms are part of the project.
Now our country has a huge production potential, the development of which is constrained artificially. In order to remove obstacles, coordinate budgetary and monetary policy, it is necessary:
- to abandon a conservative approach to the distribution of money in the budget, when money is reserved for one expense item in several places;
- reduce interest rates to 2%;
- restrain the growth of tariffs of monopolies, reforming their management, making them more efficient;
- introduce state support for vulnerable groups to buy medicines and food.
All of the above will help create a balance between supply and demand, make the economy truly market, and not half, as it is now.
To develop, increase income from small and medium-sized businesses, you must:
- to develop a long-term lending market at low interest rates;
- reduce administrative pressure, create a mechanism for protecting property;
- carry out judicial, further tax reform;
- actively support the creation of new sectors of the economy.
Judging by the forecast of GDP 2020, the government actively supports the recommendations of economists and implements them.
Now the country's economy is going through a transitional stage from the crisis, the difficult political situation, the sanctions against us have hit all areas. At the same time, they reform legislation, implement national projects, and change investment policies. It is too early to evaluate the results of all efforts. The development scenario is given by economists, governmentv, optimistic. As far as it turns out to be real - life will show.
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