According to official data published on the website of the Ministry of Economic Development, the forecast for inflation until 2020 looks quite optimistic, even taking into account the current situation in the country's economy. This is largely due to the planned policy of the Central Bank, which uses all the tools and mechanisms available to it to curb inflation expectations and increase prices for all groups of goods. However, some experts are skeptical of the published forecast and believe that in fact the inflation rate in 2019 and 2020. will be higher, because in its calculations the Ministry did not take into account the current realities and conditions in which the Central Bank will be forced to implement its monetary policy.
Official forecast
When compiling a macroeconomic forecast for inflation for 2019-2020. The Ministry of Economic Development was guided by the fact that during this period the previously adopted economic sanctions will continue to apply and the agreement with OPEC on reducing oil production will still be relevant. And taking into account how effective the implementation of structural changes and the measures prepared by the government to stabilize the economic situation in the Russian Federation will turn out to be, the Ministry has developed two scenarios (target and base), according to which events can develop in the medium term.
From the point of view of the Ministry of Economic Development, a lot of problems of the Russian Federation can bring a sharp landing of the Chinese economy. The last few years there has been a significant decrease in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of this country, the volume of which at the moment is 3 trillion. dollars. At the same time, there is a clear outflow of capital from China, and this will negatively affect the price of oil on world markets. Accordingly, when building a conservative scenario, the Ministry proceeded from how events would develop in China and what consequences this would have for the Russian economy.
According to the official forecast, inflation indices for 2018, 2019 and 2020. will be 3.1%, 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively. But it is possible that already in May next year, the Central Bank will be able to achieve its 4% target, and while maintaining the current trend by December, this figure will be 3.8%, despite the fact that such an inflation rate is also planned for 2020. At the same time, it is possible to reduce the value of the national currency to 68 rubles, but if the Central Bank manages to stabilize the situation in the foreign exchange market (fix the dollar at least in the range of 56-57 rubles), then inflation will be 2.9%.
According to the Minister of Economic Development Oreshkin M.S., there are no prerequisites for deflation, although in fact one should not exclude such a probability of development of events. In any case, the set goal of 4% significantly puts off this prospect.
New adjustments
At the same time, the Ministry corrected the forecast for the current year taking into account the existing external economic factors. So, in particular, it is assumed that in December 2018 inflationary expectations will intensify, and this will be expressed in the purchase of “goods” intended for long-term use. Fearing that their value may increase significantly in a few months, citizens will make “purchases” as their financial capabilities, which will increase prices for all groups of goods.
The planned increase in VAT to 20% will have a big impact on the situation in the retail market.The Ministry believes that due to tax changes, price increases will accelerate (at least during the first half of the year), and inflation expectations will increase significantly.
At the same time, the experts of the Ministry of Economic Development did not limit themselves to the inflation forecast for 2020 and suggested that over the next three years this economic indicator would also be no more than 4%. But this will be possible only if the price of oil remains at the current level, and Western countries will not tighten sanctions that adversely affect the country's economy.
Expert Opinions
According to experts at the Higher School of Economics, the forecast is “too optimistic” and clearly contradicts the latest trends. They believe that it is too early to talk about the exact inflation rate of 2020, since, according to their estimates, in 2018 it will be at least 3.8% (instead of 3.1%), and in 2019 - more than 5% (instead of 4 %).
HSE experts believe that a significant weakening of the ruble exchange rate and a relatively poor harvest in the agricultural sector should not be discounted, which immediately contributed to an increase in consumer prices. In addition, an increase in VAT is coming, so some sellers have already begun to revise their pricing policy in advance so as not to be at a loss.
The HSE also believes that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade in the development of scenarios ignored the latest trends that are observed in the global oil market. Most likely, the forecast of $ 63.4 per barrel next year will be incorrect and start from $ 80. This is indicated by the September increase in oil prices to $ 78, although according to the forecast it should have cost $ 70. Thus, the average annual price will amount to 72-73 dollars against 69.6 dollars. And if this trend continues, we can talk about raising the base price of oil to $ 45 per barrel, due to which state budget revenues will grow by 0.6% of GDP. This is extremely relevant against the background of its deficit, as a result of which the government is even forced to cut funding for social programs.
Read also:
- Deflator index for 2018-2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development
- Russian GDP growth forecast until 2020
- AIP of the city of Moscow for 2018-2020
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