Citizens who plan to purchase a home can not help but wonder if the apartments will rise in price in 2020 or the next local price bottom is expected, which can be used to save on the purchase of your own square meters. Similar information can be useful to those consumers who want to buy property on credit, since the size of the down payment and the total amount of the overpayment directly depend on the value of the property. However, as experts predict, given a number of factors, it can be assumed that if prices rise in 2020, it will be quite difficult to sell an apartment in view of a decrease in the purchasing power of citizens due to a reduction in their monthly income.
Pricing Features
The dynamics of the real estate market is determined by a number of economic factors on which prices for apartments in 2020 will depend. In particular, the following should be considered:
- The upcoming decline in purchasing power due to rising VAT, inflation and rising costs of all groups of goods. Citizens need more and more funds for daily expenses while maintaining the same level of wages, and therefore there is no way to save and save money for housing. Thus, even a high demand for square meters will not contribute to increased sales in the real estate market, and many sellers will lower apartment prices in order to achieve their implementation.
- An increase in the number of bank failures on mortgage applications and a decrease in the volume of such loans. After the Central Bank raised the current key rate, bankers were forced to review the current program conditions and increase the cost of loans provided. Accordingly, the average consumer almost lost the opportunity to purchase housing on credit and the demand in the real estate market immediately declined. During the boom in consumer lending, affordable mortgages only contributed to higher apartment prices, which will not be observed in 2020 if bank rates remain at the same level or the Central Bank once again raises the key rate. And the situation will not be saved by financing state programs to support preferential categories of citizens who need to improve housing conditions, in view of the relatively small scale of such transactions.
- The key factor in pricing remains the geographical location of housing. In this regard, we can assume that even if, under favorable conditions, apartments in Moscow and St. Petersburg rise in price in 2020, in other regions their cost may remain the same. At the same time, the price tag may differ in one city: for example, in a prestigious area, apartments are usually sold at a higher price, which cannot be said about square meters on the outskirts.
- The volume of new buildings that are at the stage of completion of construction or are ready for operation has decreased significantly, but this is more typical for the regions, while in Moscow and St. Petersburg there is a high activity of developers, since in the primary market there is a clear predominance of demand over supply . It is also worth noting the toughening of relevant legislation (on equity participation), since after the adoption of such legal norms the number of real estate market players has significantly decreased.
What will happen to apartments in 2020
Given the current situation in the country's economy, it can be assumed that in 2020 real estate prices will reach the next local bottom, especially since for several years there has been a clear trend of reducing the cost of square meters. In the foreseeable future, there are no obvious prerequisites for increasing the well-being of citizens, and therefore the supply volume is gradually growing amid a reduction in demand, which negatively affects pricing.
The situation is slightly better in large cities, where residents have traditionally higher incomes. But even in Moscow, developers are forced to cut prices in order to quickly sell apartments and begin construction of new facilities. According to experts, the cost of housing by 2020 may sink both in the primary and secondary housing markets. And if we take into account that the average rate of decline is 10% per year, then it will be possible to purchase an apartment in a new building at a price of about 120 thousand rubles. per square meter, which corresponds to 2 thousand dollars. at a rate of about 60 rubles. per dale
Despite the decline in demand, sellers of secondary real estate are not always ready to make concessions and often refuse to sell, preferring to wait for more favorable conditions for the implementation. But, judging by the data of analysts, they will come very soon, as indicated by the deterioration of the situation in the country's economy.
When to wait for price increases
If sellers are worried about whether apartments will rise in price in 2020, then buyers are hoping for a decrease in their cost, and they are much more likely to wait for a good time to conclude a deal. Given a combination of factors, experts agree that next year the cost of housing will drop a little and it is possible that such a situation will be observed until 2023. An exception is possible only if the Russian economy can successfully overcome the crisis, which will immediately affect the level of well-being of citizens. Due to an increase in demand and volumes of bank lending, real estate prices will increase slightly, although even in such a favorable scenario, growth will be no more than 5-7%.
A more realistic forecast is a rise in the cost of housing closer to 2024. But even in such a scenario, one should not count on a sharp increase in prices, despite the presence of stable demand for square meters. Most likely, at first only the current value will be adjusted for the inflation rate, or sellers will recalculate the price tags that are set based on the value of the currency, which can significantly rise in price by this moment.
Read also:
- Real estate forecast for 2019-2020
- Moscow development plan until 2020: scheme
- General plan of Krasnodar until 2020
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