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Due to the instability of the situation in Ukraine, it is now difficult to predict how events will develop in 2020. The opinions of experts regarding the near future of the country differ, although most are inclined to believe that the state still has to pass a series of tests and a difficult path to success. Economic development, domestic and foreign policy trends may change significantly after the presidential election, which will be held in 2019.
The gas conflict will gain momentum
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is a significant contribution to the state treasury. Due to conflicts between countries, Russia has significantly reduced the supply of natural energy through its neighbors. Naftogaz filed a lawsuit with the Stockholm Arbitration Court. According to the court, Gazprom is obliged to pay 4.63 billion dollars in compensation to Ukraine.
Most experts agree that the Ukrainian authorities in vain entered the path of the gas war with Russia. Even if it is possible to obtain full compensation, such decisions will have negative consequences in the future. In 2020, Ukraine will not be able to earn on gas transit.
The fact is that now the Russian Federation is implementing two projects for the construction of bypass gas pipelines, which it will use to supply energy to other countries. It is assumed that by the end of 2019, the Turkish Stream pipeline, which will run along the Turkish coast, will begin to function. In addition, another pipeline "Nord Stream-2" is now at the active stage of construction. The date of its launch is still not exactly known, since it depends on the influence of Europe on the process. If Nord Stream-2 begins to function, the Ukrainian gas pipeline will no longer be used to transport gas.
It is possible that Germany, protecting the interests of Ukraine, will oblige Russia to use the gas pipeline or pay compensation. Such measures may not give the desired results, since the Russian Federation has its own leverage over the European Union. The reduction in revenues to the state treasury will certainly have a negative impact on the overall well-being of the country.
What will happen to the economy
Experts' forecasts regarding the state of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 are generally disappointing, although some experts do not exclude the optimistic development of an optimistic scenario. The current situation in the country largely depends on the International Monetary Fund. And although Ukraine is carrying out reforms dictated by Europe, the crisis is only gaining momentum - the number of people who are below the poverty line is constantly growing.
Experts say three possible scenarios of economic development of the state:
- Optimistic. The dollar exchange rate will not exceed the mark of 28 hryvnia. Salaries will increase by 25-30%, and inflation will decrease to 7.7%. Although economists say that the likelihood of events according to this scheme is minimal and possible only with financial support from the European Union.
- Realistic. This scenario is also called "freezing." The average level of the economy will remain the same. Salaries will rise a little, but inflation will grow along with them, which will fully cover all the incomes of citizens. At the same time, the external debt of the state will continue to grow.
- Pessimistic. Due to the rapidly growing inflation, which may exceed 18%, the welfare of citizens will deteriorate significantly. At the same time, GDP growth will not exceed 0.5-1%.The worst option is default.
Still, most experts believe that after a change of power, the overall economic situation will improve or remain unchanged. 2020 can be a turning point for the state.
The end of the war in the Donbass
Many experts agree that in 2020 the war in Ukraine will end. And although Poroshenko has already appealed to the European Union with a request to bring peacekeepers to the Donbass, the process is being delayed, and military operations continue. With the advent of the new government, the situation should change.
If a country fails to resolve the conflict on its own, NATO forces will intervene. Some experts believe that the situation in the Donbass will be resolved without the participation of the military. The fact is that a bill has been drawn up in the United States according to which America plans to introduce new sanctions and restrictions on the international market for Russia if the situation in the east of Ukraine is not resolved. Sources claim that this time the American authorities plan to seriously deliver a crushing blow to the Russian Federation, although they do not specify how they will do it.
Most likely, the Donetsk and Lugansk regions will remain part of Ukraine, but Crimea cannot be returned. And although the Ukrainian authorities now do not recognize the loss of the peninsula, in fact Crimea has become part of Russia.
What psychics and astrologers say
Many people, wanting to know what awaits Ukraine in 2020, are studying the predictions of psychics. Unlike scientists and experts, many seers predict a bright future for the state. For example, the famous astrologer Pavel Globa claims that the war will end by this time, and the situation will stabilize. Although he does not deny that in the near future there will be a devaluation of the hryvnia and other problems. According to the astrologer, 2019-2020 will be the recovery period for Ukraine.
Ukrainian psychic Elena Kurilova gives less positive predictions. She believes that the crisis will continue, and its consequences may lead to a rebellion of the people against the government. But she argues that people themselves can make a difference if they think positively and bring more highlights to their lives.
So far, the future of Ukraine is too vague, so making forecasts is a thankless task. Only time will tell if the situation will change for the better.
Read also:
- Wang: predictions for 2020
- Prospects for the development of Russia by 2020
- Will there be an end to the world in 2020?
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