The upcoming US presidential election, which is the 59th in a row, is scheduled for November 3, 2020. The electoral system of the Americans is different from ours, so it is quite difficult to predict the winner, you can only roughly say which party he will be from.
How the elections will be held
Before voters vote for the president, a series of primary elections or primaries will be held in the first six months of 2020. Each fraction as a result will have to choose its candidate from all who ran. The National Congress of the US Democratic Party is scheduled for July 13–16, 2020. The date of the republican national congress is scheduled for August 24–27, and the libertarian one for May 22–25.
Party opponents will then engage in several debates. As a rule, representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties participate in the race, although others may join. Debate will continue until the presidential election. On November 3rd, Americans will go to vote. This process, in fact, can be called indirect elections, since they do not elect the president, but the delegates of the Electoral College.
Each state is assigned a certain number of electors from each party, there must be 538 in total. Citizens vote for the president they like, and then each state is counted: for which party gave the most votes, those delegates will go to the Board meeting. For example, if in Ohio the majority of people vote for Republicans, then all the votes of the electors from this party, for example, in Ohio there are 5 of them, will leave Trump. To win the election, a minimum of 270 votes is required (half of the electors +1).
The formed College will elect the president 41 days after the popular vote, although before that it will be possible to calculate who will win. As expected, delegates vote for the candidate from their party, who had previously been selected for the primaries, although this is more a matter of conscience than a prescribed law. The winner personally chooses the vice president (except for the libertarians who appoint the vice president by voting).
Candidates
As of March 11, 2019, 605 candidates for the presidency of the United States were registered, including:
- 206 from the Democrats;
- 78 from Republicans;
- 20 liberals;
- 12 from the green.
Republicans
The current president, Donald Trump, elected in 2016 from the Republican Party, is seeking re-election for a second term. He applied on the day of his inauguration, and in fact has been conducting a political campaign since then.
Republicans are likely to choose Trump as a candidate. However, not everyone agrees with this. Starting in August 2017, there were reports that the Republicans were preparing a “shadow campaign” against Donald. The then Arizona Senator John McCain said that "they see this president as weak."
Of course, not many dare to speak out against Donald. Given Trump’s official Republican approval rating of 90%, it’s unlikely that he will lose the party’s candidacy. But if his reputation is “tarnished” by a serious scandal or the country's economy begins to crumble, then a more moderate applicant may gain momentum.
Against Trump from the Republicans, apparently, are 3 main opponents:
- John Caseic.After an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016, the Ohio Governor became one of the few notable Trump critics. Caseik decided to run, because he believes that he is more faithful to conservative principles, as well as more reliable and moral. Opponent of abortion and a proponent of low taxes, Caseyk really has traditional Republican views, but a much less inflammatory style than Donald.
- Larry Hogan The Governor of Maryland easily won re-election last year, despite the fact that his staff was completely democratic at most levels of government. He is a centrist republican who has imposed restrictions on weapons and supports gay marriage. When asked if he could oppose the current president, he replied: "Never say never."
- Mitt Romney. A presidential contender in 2012, who lost to Barack Obama, entered the Senate last year as a representative of Utah. He freely criticized Trump on many issues, which means he can use his platform to win in 2020.
Democrats
The field of Democratic candidates opposing Donald Trump in 2020 will be one of the largest in history. Unlike the 2016 elections, where Hillary Clinton was the dominant candidate, this time there is no clear leader. Each applicant has its own strengths and weaknesses. This amount shows the Democrats' insistent desire to defeat Trump.
At the moment, the main contenders for the post of head of the United States are:
- Joe Biden The former vice president is the first democratic leader in the polls. However, Biden’s age (75 years) may work against him, as people need young leaders.
- Bernie Sanders. Also a seasoned “warrior” in the political arena. Senator Vermont, 77, still has loyal followers after his refusal to race in 2016. Sanders focuses on issues such as affordable healthcare, free public college education and decent pay.
- Kamalla Harris, a senator from California. Harris is considered one of the strongest candidates. Her radical views attract many activists, but since Kamalla is still new to national politics, she still needs time to get to know the country better.
- Beto O`Rourke, Congressman, 46 years old. O`Rourke, who is often compared to Obama, became a sensation of the Democrats thanks to his campaign in the Senate, conducted in extremely conservative Texas. Although he lost the election then, the PR campaign was successful, as a result of which Beto gained popularity among American youth. This gives him a good chance of winning.
- Cory Booker. The New Jersey Senator was the first Democratic candidate to be reportedly supported by SuperPAC. Booker, raised in a family of civic activists, is a zealous advocate for equality, especially among African Americans, Hispanics, and women. He has some of the most liberal views in the Senate and stands out for focusing his efforts on the legalization of marijuana and criminal justice reform.
Joe Biden
After the Me Too movement, several female candidates are expected to participate in the primaries, so there is a high probability that Democrats will appoint a woman for the second time. It has also been suggested that the best choice for Democrats would be to nominate some celebrity or business person with no government experience, such as Oprah Winfrey.
Likely winner
So far, Trump has a leading position in the ratings, but the Democrats are not far behind him. According to experts, changes in the demographic situation in America can turn the results of the presidential election.In 2020, voters aged 18 to 45 will be slightly less than 40%. Also, according to demographics, more than 30% of eligible American voters will be non-white. This shift is potentially an advantage for Democrats; however, due to geographical differences, this can lead to the election of Republicans, including Trump, although if he wins, he will still lose the vote, possibly with a larger margin than in 2016.
Recall that the presidential election will be held simultaneously with the elections to the Senate and House of Representatives. Several states will also hold elections for governors and legislatures. Often, a party that wins the presidential election experiences a coalition effect that helps its other members win the election. Thus, the party that won the 2020 presidential election can also have a significant advantage in attracting new people to Congressional district and state.
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