The Government of the Russian Federation annually approves the draft federal budget for next year, as well as the planned indicators for the next 2 calendar years, which contain both total forecast and planned revenues and conditionally approved expenses for 2019, 2020 and 2021.
How expenses are claimed
The federal budget of the Russian Federation is a key part of the country's budget system, which is an economic justification for the centralized spending of funds received in the Russian treasury, taking into account the current economic situation and based on the forecast of capital flows.
Through the FB RF:
- redistribution of GDP and GNP;
- the accumulation of monetary resources to regulate the economic situation in Russia, pursue a social policy and maintain a high level of national defense capability.
Through the RF FB, the key sectors of the national economy and regions receive the funds necessary for the successful functioning of the country's economy. Conditionally approved expenses, hereinafter referred to as UUR, respectively, are formed on the basis of the data of the Bill on FB.
What is a URL? According to paragraph 5 of Art. 184.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, conditionally approved, or otherwise approved, are understood as unallocated budget appropriations, i.e. those costs that have not been allocated to cost items in accordance with the adopted classification. In terms of its economic content, this type of cost represents a certain reserve for the Ministry of Finance, the amount of which can be used to reduce costs in the future, under favorable market conditions. Roughly speaking, they constitute a kind of financial "airbag" that can compensate for the shortage of funds in a crisis period.
Official data
The data of the bill No. 556362-7 “On the federal budget for 2019 and for the planning period 2020 and 2021” correlate with the information from the Federal Law No. 459 of November 29, 2018. Based on the last document, the planned revenues and expenses of the budget for 2019 and 2020 were established years
The amounts of revenues and expenses are calculated taking into account the forecast GDP, which according to preliminary estimates will be (in billions of rubles):
- 105,820.0 in 2019;
- 110 732.0 RUB in 2020;
- 118,409.0 in 2021.
The forecast and planned inflation rate are also taken into account:
- 4.3% - in 2019;
- 3.8% - in 2020;
- 4% - in 2021.
Data on the receipt of money and expenditures of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2019, 2020 and 2021. based on official publication - Federal Law No. 459 of November 29, 2018 - are consolidated in the table.
| Index | 2019 (forecast), thousand rubles | 2020 (plan), thousand rubles | 2021 (plan), thousand rubles |
|---|---|---|---|
| income | 19969336961.2 | 20218609435.5 | 20978007777.8 |
| including revenues from the oil and gas industry | 3369178509.1 | 2776922877.3 | 2631983515.5 |
| costs | 18037246116.4 | 18994250253.6 | 20026029899.3 |
| contingent expenses for 2019 and 2020 | - | 474856256.3 | 1001301495 |
| domestic debt | 11612754160.3 | 13500046376.6 | 5176325636.6 |
| external debt | 64.6 billion USD, or 54.8 billion EUR | 64.3 billion USD, or 52.7 billion EUR | 68.0 billion USD, or 54.9 billion EUR; |
| surplus | 1932090844.8 | 1224359181.9 | 951977878.5 |
Thus, in the next 3 years, the RF FB promises to be in surplus. In a favorable scenario, the surplus will be 1.8% of GDP.
The table shows the spending of funds in key areas for 2019:
| Cost item | Share in total expenses,% |
|---|---|
| Social politics | 27.1 |
| Defense complex | 16.2 |
| National economy | 12.5 |
| National security | 7.8 |
| General State Issues | 5.2 |
| Other areas, including education, healthcare, housing and communal services, etc. | 31.2 |
Expert Comments
Andrei Makarov believes that revenues will increase by about 22% in 2019 compared with 2018.At the same time, according to the same expert, the inflation rate included in the calculation can be significantly lower, since this parameter has not yet been agreed with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
According to specialists from the Russian Academy of Sciences, cash inflows to the FB of the Russian Federation in 2018-2020 will increase by approximately 10.6% in nominal terms. Moreover, their share relative to GDP will be reduced. A plus of the new approach to budgeting is a decrease in revenues from the oil and gas industry, which is an important incentive for domestic production. The result will be an increase in the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar: in 2019, the exchange rate may be 63.6 RUB to 1 USD against the current 66.4 RUB. Due to the gradual unlinking of the country's economy from raw materials, the cost of a barrel of Urals oil in 2019 will drop to 63.4 USD against 69.6 USD in 2018.
RAS meeting
Experts point out the urgent need to adjust the share of income taking into account the real market situation in the country. In the current scenario, you need:
- shifts in industrial production;
- diversification of the industrial sector of the economy;
- growth in domestic production;
- import of engineering products.
As for expenses, they will decrease in 2019-2020, but taking into account 2021, their growth in nominal terms will be about 2.6%, which is significantly lower than the inflation rate.
In general, you need to understand that in the current market conditions, when future oil prices remain a mystery even to eminent experts, and it is not at all possible to assess the scope of possible sanctions, planning even in the medium term is an extremely difficult process. Based on the official data presented, we can conclude that the budget was formed taking into account the surplus. The figures presented in it are somewhat overestimated: to achieve such indicators is possible only with a favorable market situation in 2019-2021.
Read also:
- Inflation forecast for 2020 in Russia
- Russian GDP growth forecast until 2020
- Deflator index for 2018-2020 of the Ministry of Economic Development
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