Content
The consumer price index for 2020 from the Ministry of Economic Development is one of the economic indicators, on the basis of which it is possible to determine the cost of goods, services, works in the specified period. The deflator index, as it is called, is a predicted value that directly depends on the level of inflation and GDP. Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development are considering several scenarios - all of them are encouraging. Independent analysts are skeptical and do not believe in improvement.
Deflator index
2020 deflator index - This is a calculated coefficient equal to the price growth index. Its application allows you to calculate the cost of a group of consumer goods and services of interest. The basic indicator for the use of the deflator index is the current value of food products, industrial, hygiene products. With the help of a deflator, the government assesses the real income level of citizens, their purchasing power, analyze solvency in general and develop a set of measures to really support those who are below the poverty line.
Forecast 2020
The Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, presenting an updated forecast to reporters, focused on several significant points:
- Decrease in projected inflation to 3% (3.8% was initially forecasted).
- An increase in GDP up to 2% (against the previously predicted indicator of 1.7%).
At the same time, the general inflation forecast until 2024 remains at 4%. Subject to updates, the consumer price index for 2020 is:
- for goods - 103.3;
- for services - 104.3.
Deflator:
- retail turnover - 103.5;
- paid services to the population - 104.2.
In 2019, the estimated CPI values were:
- for goods - 104;
- for services - 104.9.
In 2021, the CPI is forecasted:
- for goods - 103.9;
- for services - 104.4.
If we compare the indicators of the current and forecast periods, the situation looks more or less even, with slight fluctuations throughout the year. But there are nuances. Independent analysts, without underestimating the importance of the estimated coefficient, indicate a significant drawback of its use. This drawback is that the official inflation rate, on the basis of which the calculations are based, is initially underestimated. This in turn makes it difficult to obtain real data on the level of population’s income and the most accurate forecast of the consumer price index for 2020 and subsequent periods.
Three possible scenarios
When determining the estimated indicators, employees of the relevant ministries immediately consider three likely scenarios:
- base;
- basic + (favorable);
- target.
Basic version
The basic version for the next year is considered taking into account the fact that the situation will remain at the level of 2019 without any significant changes. It means that:
- the cost of a barrel of oil will not fall below $ 40;
- inflation will be below 4.4%;
- GDP will grow by more than 1.7%;
- exports will show growth of 1/3 or more;
- customs duties will remain at the current level.
Favorable option
This scenario is more optimistic, it is possible with the weakening or complete lifting of economic sanctions and other positive trends. In particular:
- rising oil prices to $ 48-50 per barrel, or even higher;
- reduction of customs duties on Russian-made goods;
- inflation does not exceed 4.3%;
- domestic trade turnover is growing at 3.5% and higher annually;
- the government fully fulfills social obligations and develops new projects;
- the standard of living of the population is improving throughout the country.
Target option
The target forecast is based on the fact that the Russian economy will reach the target growth indicators and will demonstrate a tendency to further sustainable growth. In the future, this will allow her to get closer to world indicators.
In the target scenario, the numbers are most optimistic:
- the inflation rate does not exceed 3.9%;
- retail turnover on average in the country exceeds 5.3%;
- retail volumes in the service sector - from 3.9%;
- GDP is increasing by 3%;
- capital outflow from Russia ceases;
- the influx of investment in the economy is intensifying;
- the share of exports in the economy is significantly increasing.
Opinion of independent experts
Independent analysts are not so optimistic - rather, their forecasts are pessimistic. Financiers and economists believe the current situation in the state economy is not yet critical, but far from ideal. Recent tax changes may lead to higher prices in the consumer market. The same result will be due to inflation - the projected minimum level of 4.5%. The Central Bank of Russia will have to make serious efforts to stop it at least at around 4%.
Independent forecasts indicate that an increase in VAT will entail an increase in deflator indices. First of all, this will affect the following product groups:
- gasoline, diesel fuel, gas;
- transport sector;
- Agriculture;
- building.
The growth of deflator indexes in construction will entail an increase in the price of building materials, equipment, the cost of repair and decoration works. Together, all these factors will cause an increase in the cost per square meter in the primary and secondary real estate market.
In the economy, all segments are interconnected, so the rise in price in one industry will affect other areas. Dynamics in the fuel market will affect logistics: the delivery of food products and goods of an industrial group will increase in price - the prices of goods themselves will increase.
At the official government level, the most optimistic is called the basic development scenario, in which relative stability is maintained.
Independent financiers predict a further crisis without growth dynamics. If there is growth, then, in their opinion, the minimum will not have a significant impact on the situation. They see a way out of the prevailing adverse conditions in investing and developing promising industries. Who is right will show the near future.
Read also:
(1 ratings, average: 5,00 out of 5)
Loading...
