Despite the negative financial forecast for 2020 for the Russian economy, many experts believe that it will be a turning point in terms of the country's development and the selection of priorities for further development. But growth is possible only if the government can implement its plans to gradually reduce the level of raw material dependence and achieve at least a partial lifting of sanctions restrictions. However, this will be very difficult to take into account, given the particularities of the formation of the state budget, the current focus of the economy and the negative political background.
General situation
The past few years have been difficult enough for the Russian economy. And this is not only about the imposition of sanctions, which, as they apply, have a destabilizing effect on all financial and industrial sectors. Of great importance is the dependence of the Russian Federation on oil production and sales, since the country's budget fullness depends on its cost, which means the level of inflation, the amount of financing of social programs, the amount of wages, indexation of pensions, etc.
According to experts, in 2020 much attention will be paid to reducing raw material dependence, which should entail the activation of domestic resources and growth in individual industrial sectors. Current sanctions restrictions, which are unlikely to be lifted in the next 12 months, will also contribute to this.
It is assumed that in a year the budget will be formed not only from the proceeds from the sale of "black gold". The chemical and machine-building industries, as well as high-tech enterprises, which can even receive subsidies from the state, will work at full capacity. Thanks to the import substitution program, the demand for their products will be quite high, so they will be interested in modernizing production, developing new products and increasing sales. At the moment, it is unclear whether, due to this, it will be possible to raise the GDP indicator to the level of leading countries and cover the current budget deficit, thereby increasing the level of well-being of ordinary citizens. But, despite the long-term announced plan to remove raw material dependence, making a financial forecast for 2020 in Russia, analysts cannot but take into account the possible cost of oil in international markets.
Pessimistic forecast
If the price of "black gold" drops below $ 35. per barrel, the state budget will receive less than 500 billion rubles, which will entail an increase in its deficit. The first thing the government will do in this situation is to reduce existing social programs in order to reduce the subsidized part of the state budget. Pensions and salaries will not be indexed, inflation will accelerate, and the value of the national currency will decrease, which will lead to a destabilization of the social situation.
Companies that are participants in investment programs will not receive money from the budget. In this regard, they will be forced to revise their plans for the development, development of new areas and markets. Some commercial banks will not be able to cope with the situation, and their problems will be associated mainly with the growth of delay in obligations. It is possible that this will even lead to a reduction in the number of market players, which will increase the degree of tension in society.
Upbeat forecast
Despite a number of negative trends, many experts believe that a pessimistic forecast is unlikely and there are more chances that the cost of oil will be at least 50 dollars. This will be enough to ensure that the state budget is not in short supply, which means that it will be possible to avoid reducing the funding of subsidy programs.
Under an optimistic scenario, there will be more opportunities for implementing the plans outlined by the government to diversify risks. Due to this, it will be possible to increase the economic growth rate and even insure against the case of a decrease in the cost of a barrel in the long run.
If there is a sufficient amount of budget revenues, a decision may be made on the indexation of social payments and wages. And to overcome the demographic crisis, new programs can be implemented to support young families where young children are brought up. Also, additional education will receive additional funding, the maintenance costs of which have only recently been reduced.
Expert Forecasts
The Ministry of Economic Development believes that 2020 will be a turning point for the country's economy. It is assumed that, as a result, GDP growth will be at least 3%, which in general will positively affect the revenue side of the budget. The number and volume of export-import operations will increase, and the country will be able to get out of the demographic pit through the implementation of programs to support young families and increase the birth rate.
Inflation will be no more than 5%, even taking into account the forecasted cost of oil by the Ministry of Economic Development of $ 45. per barrel. In this case, the volatility of the national currency will decrease, and the rate will be about 68 rubles. for the dollar. The growth of the economy will also be due to an increase in investment, the development of affordable concessional lending and the legislative restriction on the cost of services of companies that are recognized as monopolists.
Sberbank analysts are more restrained in their forecasts and believe that the ruble exchange rate in 2020 will exceed 70 rubles. with a high probability of further reduction in its value. Annual inflation will be 5%, but the government will nevertheless be able to stabilize the economic situation by increasing labor productivity and taking measures to reduce currency volatility.
Specialists of the Higher School of Economics are also quite restrained in their forecasts. They believe that in current realities it is hardly worth waiting for a significant rise in GDP in 2020 and the maximum that can be expected is 1.6%. This will be due to the low cost of oil and the absence of significant prerequisites for its increase, the insignificant volume of expert operations abroad of goods that are not energy resources, an increase in the tax burden, prolongation of sanctions and political instability, which negatively affects the country's economic growth indicators.
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