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The economic situation in which Russia currently resides is unstable. The exchange rate of the national currency is still fluctuating in comparison with the main world banknotes, and relations with many countries have deteriorated even more. In this regard, the topic of the economic forecast for Russia's development for 2020 is relevant and significant for many.
General forecasts for 2020
In accordance with the theses of the government, in 2020 the Russian Federation should enter the top five in terms of GDP. It is also expected to improve economic performance and solve the problem of budget deficits. This will make it possible to carry out a set of important reforms relating to all economic segments and social spheres, which will positively affect the level of welfare of the population.
However, constraints cannot be avoided. Sanctions policies and the instability of the global oil market will continue to slow down the growth of the Russian economy. But some experts are sure that such adverse conditions, on the contrary, will activate the country's internal potential and push the economy to growth.
Experts assign the leading position not to the mining but to the manufacturing industry. The palm will be divided between engineering, chemical and light industries. The development of mechanical engineering is due to increased demand for road transport equipment, domestic cars, and various production equipment. The chemical industry implements the process of import substitution, which will significantly reduce the outflow of currency from Russia. The growth of construction and consumer demand will become the prerequisites for the development of the forest industry.
Development scenarios
The economic development of the Russian Federation directly depends on the price of oil on the world market. Some analysts, putting this parameter at the forefront, predict the course of the economic situation in two scenarios.
- If the price per barrel of black gold returns to around $ 35. Russia faces a long process of decline in production and a slowdown in the economy. It will be extremely difficult to adapt to the current situation. Even if the government imposes a restriction on the financing of certain social programs, the budget deficit may approach the level of 500 billion rubles. A characteristic phenomenon will be the outflow of capital.
- If the price per barrel of oil does not fall below $ 50 per barrel. The situation will improve. The social sector will be provided with support and subsidies, which will translate into higher wages for public sector employees.
From Sberbank of the Russian Federation
The development scenario from Sberbank analysts is not encouraging. During 2019-20, the dollar will continue to grow, reaching a mark of 70 rubles. By the end of 2020, the expected rate of inflation will be 5%. Despite this, in the long term (2036), the ruble is expected to strengthen its position in the international arena due to increased labor productivity.
From HSE Analysts
According to representatives of the Higher School of Economics, there can be no talk of a growth trend in GDP. Indicators: for 2020 - 1.6%, for 2021 - 1.9%. This dynamics will be due to:
- falling oil prices in the global market;
- slowdown in export growth;
- raising the VAT rate and bringing it up to 20%.
Among the negative factors, the slowdown in the export of non-fuel goods and services (2.5-3.5%), as well as geopolitical tensions are also highlighted. In general, experts attribute the year 2020 to a difficult and difficult period in the country's economy.
From the Ministry of Economic Development
According to Minister M.S. Oreshkin, from 2020 the percentage of GDP will begin to grow: about 3% per year. At the beginning of the period, he predicts a reduction in the economically active population of the country. However, then this indicator will show a positive trend. Changes will affect the structure of the economy. The growth of the share of services in GDP is forecasted: exports and imports will increase 1.5 times.
From Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Representatives of the analytical center determine the cost of oil as a determining factor in the development of the Russian economy. Provided that the price remains at $ 80 per barrel, Russia will safely avoid a contraction in the economy. The decline in the cost of black gold will turn out for the state not only a monetary, but also a political crisis.
Even in conditions of economic stagnation, employers will increase the salary of their employees, while retaining valuable employees. The average salary will be 45 thousand rubles, which will ensure a decent level of well-being of citizens and an increase in the size of the middle class (66 million people).
Ways to replenish the budget deficit - raising taxes: VAT, mineral extraction tax, real estate, alcohol and tobacco products.
2020 Economic Forecast: Expert Opinions
According to political scientist V.I. Pantin, it is important for the Russian Federation to maintain political and socio-economic relations with three neighboring countries: Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. This will allow not to lose the defeat in the world political arena. Pantin believes that the lack of innovation and insufficient modernization, demographic problems, an insufficient management system, pressure from the West and the East are all negative factors that will negatively affect the country's geo-economic and geopolitical position in the future. 2020 should be a turning point in the life of the state. The scenario can develop in two directions.
- We are waiting for rebirth, a way out of the crisis, further improvement of the economy and living standards of the population;
- Complete degradation, territorial decay.
According to Raffeisenbank macroanalyst S. Murashov, pension reform is a factor in slowing economic growth. The process will negatively affect the welfare of the population. It’s hard for people of pre-retirement age to get a job, their health condition also affects, so the content of many of them will fall on children or relatives. Murashov predicts a decline in income.
Based on all the forecasts made, we can say that next year will be difficult. There is a slight decline in the country's economy, but the government is still realizing the main socio-economic tasks.
Read also:
- The budget policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2020
- Russia's tax policy for 2019-2020
- Conditionally approved expenses for 2019-2020
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